The crisis in the restaurant business has not yet fully manifested itself. Owners of affordable restaurants and fast food even notice an increase in the flow of visitors. But what does the future promise them? How will the situation develop in the restaurant business? And is it possible to prepare for the worst in advance?
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The global financial crisis, having reached Russia, has hit significantly in many sectors of the economy. Many companies expect massive layoffs, banks cease to provide new loans and raise rates or require early repayment of previously issued loans, reduced production and much more.
The crisis did not pass by the food industry. There are already visible trends that, if not given due attention, can lead to disastrous consequences for both individual enterprises and the industry as a whole. The magnitude of the crisis and its consequences for the restaurant business are not yet fully understood. The first wave has passed through the market, which has already caused losses, and how many waves will follow after it - we have to find out in the near future.
First of all, expensive restaurants with a high average bill, designed for a wealthy public, were affected. In many of them, attendance decreased markedly. Middle-class people, employees of investment companies, managers of companies with foreign capital, and employees of the banking sector, for whom prices in these establishments were at the upper limit of acceptable values, and who suffered the most from the crisis, were among the first to go to expensive restaurants. And with each round of the crisis there is an ever-increasing outflow of visitors, for whom prices are a determining factor in choosing a restaurant. In parallel with attendance, the average bill falls.
For the most part, people with high incomes have not changed their preferences and continue to visit familiar and favorite restaurants, but at the same time many of them have begun to be more careful about prices. If earlier this man at dinner easily took a couple of bottles of wine from a famous producer worth from a thousand euros, now he will prefer something less well-known, without overpaying for the brand. Most companies cut back on hospitality. And if earlier, during negotiations in restaurants, top managers completely did not pay attention to the final bill and simply paid with a card, now there are no such situations. Only the restaurants opened in this segment are experiencing enormous difficulties in promotion.
Medium and reasonably priced restaurants were less affected by the first wave of the crisis. Now the number of visitors to restaurants in this price segment remains at the level of the same period last year. This is partly due to the outflow of a certain part of the audience of expensive restaurants to establishments of this price category. But in the event of further development of the crisis, restaurants of this class can also feel a decrease in the number of visitors. This is due to the fact that most of the cuts that the market is still waiting for (many companies from various sectors of the economy have announced their intention to reduce the staff by 5-20 percent) will affect this particular category of people for which mid-range restaurants are designed.
Least of all was the crisis in the fast food segment. This segment is often the most resistant to various shocks. In Moscow over the past few years, the beginnings of a culture of nutrition outside the home have begun to take shape. And fast food as the most inexpensive manifestation of this trend does not lack visitors. Many simply do not imagine visiting a shopping or entertainment center without visiting a food court. And the street retail outlets of various fast food chains have become so everyday and habitual for a snack on the run that, due to their cheapness and existing audience, they are unlikely to feel the pressure of the crisis. And with a competent financial policy, one can even talk about increasing profits.
Very difficult times await large chain restaurants. The inaccessibility of borrowed funds, due to which the development of many network projects was carried out, has already led to significant slowdowns. Deadlines for many objects at different stages of construction. delayed or even frozen due to funding difficulties. And this is only the first stage.
In the future, the need to return previously borrowed funds may lead to bankruptcies of those companies that, in conditions of economic prosperity, tried by all means and by any means to increase capitalization and gain market share. And in pursuit of these indicators, the companies, confident in a prosperous and rosy situation in the economy, made critical debt / EBITDA ratios. In any case, large restaurant holdings expect personnel cleanings. This primarily affects the back office staff. Significant reductions will take place in the marketing and development departments.
Another problem that affects all segments of the restaurant business is the rise in price of products. Some suppliers, trying to overcome the liquidity problem, are forced to raise selling prices for products. This will lead to an increase in the cost of the final product in catering establishments. And in a crisis, to solve this problem by raising prices in a restaurant is quite problematic. Also, due to the lack of sufficient funds from suppliers who actively used credit funds to purchase products, it may be difficult to maintain the assortment. Because of this, some imported goods may be lost on the market.
Already now there are problems with purchases, which have to be urgently solved. Many restaurants without tenders are forced to change suppliers in order not to be left without the products necessary for the work. And this again, in turn, negatively affects the cost.
At the same time, the crisis has some advantages for the restaurant market. Due to the closure of weaker players in the food industry and a wave of contractions in other areas of the economy, staff shortages will be resolved, which for several years has been one of the key problems of the restaurant business. Limited vacancies in other areas of the business will make many job seekers take a closer look at the restaurant business, as a temporary bay, in order to endure difficult times. In the future, some of them linger in this area for a long time. Surely it will be better with foreign specialists who will be more willing to respond to offers from Russia, since the crisis has affected other countries. Again, for fear of remaining unclaimed at home, many foreigners are afraid to leave our country.
As for consulting services for the restaurant business - there is already a sharp increase in demand. The need in a crisis situation to optimize business processes as much as possible makes many restaurant owners turn to specialists for help. As a company specializing in integrated crisis management consulting, the number of inquiries over the past month has more than tripled. And this is only the beginning of the crisis.
In the future, with the advent of new problems, we expect even more calls. Another trend is that if six months ago the number of calls for anti-crisis consulting was approximately equal to the number of calls for the so-called start-up, now the vast majority of calls are anti-crisis consulting. Therefore, for consulting companies, the main specialization of which is a str-up, a significant reduction in demand is possible. We, on the contrary, at the moment can afford to be even more demanding of the customer.
What can be advised restaurateurs in anticipation of difficult times. Now, since the crisis has not yet fully affected the restaurant business, there is time to take measures in order to transfer difficult times with less losses. It is necessary to deal with business issues with greater responsibility and caution. The general level of economic decline is not clear, and a lot depends on various factors that are difficult to predict.
It is difficult to give exact recommendations, not knowing the detailed situation at the facility, because different sites may be lame in different areas. Someone has problems with theft, someone suffers due to the lack of clear positioning and much more. And if earlier the restaurant could stay afloat with these problems, then in a crisis, the presence of unresolved problems will inevitably put the whole business to the bottom. And the sooner these problems are resolved, the greater the chances of a successful outcome of events.
Future budgets must be reviewed and costs reasonably minimized.
Review your marketing policy, adjust development plans, adjust staff, remove duplicate positions. In many companies, for example, there are several office managers, although one could handle the volume of work. Make reductions in the departments that gained “overweight” during the period of financial prosperity. Why in the marketing department 5 people, if the advertising budget for the future period is cut three times. Or the development department, if the financial situation does not allow for the foreseeable future to open seven new points.
Adjust the menu to increase positions with the highest margin. It is necessary to bring out dishes consisting of products that may disappear in the near future, so as not to urgently seek a replacement at any price.
Talk with suppliers. Find out the situation. Pay attention to controlling the cost of products and goods that are included not only in the so-called category “A”, but also take a closer look at category “B”. Carefully consider the choice of the bank through which settlements with suppliers pass. In case of problems, the bank may freeze accounts. And for a restaurant, even a few days of non-settlement are fatal. Maybe it makes sense to open accounts with several banks?
Already now we can say that in the near future we are expected to stagnate the restaurant market. Weak players will be forced to leave him. And the strong ones will focus on optimizing processes within the company and will not actively expand. Now, in anticipation of a new round of crisis, it is necessary to tighten their belts and clean up the tails that have been stretching since the time of economic recovery. All resources must be mobilized to resist the crisis. I would like to hope that the global or at least the Russian economy will soon recover from the crisis, and now we have reached the bottom, followed by a rebound and a further ascent. But you need to hope and believe, and just in case, it is better to group in order to transfer a possible blow, and if it does not follow, then from this position it will be much more convenient to start to storm new peaks.